Expiring provisions by the numbers

Data from the White House

We hear a lot about expiring tax cuts. That would be cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 that were to expire at the end of 2010, but were extended for 2011 and 2012 on 12/17/10. In addition to over 30 provisions that expire at the end of 2012, there were about 60 provisions that expired at the end of 2011 and have not been renewed.  It is likely that most will be renewed as that has happened in the past and often retroactively. These include the research tax credit and the above-the-line deduction for K-12 teacher expenses.

I have a short article in the AICPA Tax Adviser today that presents many of the numbers associated with these expired and expiring provisions. These numbers include how many provisions expired or will expire and when, how long we have had these rates relative past sets of tax rates, the number of taxpayers affected by various expired or expiring provisions and the estimated costs to extend various of these provisions.

I hope you'll take a look - Expiring provisions by the numbers (9/13/12).  This is part of the "fiscal cliff" we also hear about - that in January 2013, most individuals will have higher taxes than in 2012 and required spending cuts (sequestration) takes effect. The CBO predicts it may lead to a recession.

"Such fiscal tightening will lead to economic conditions in 2013 that will probably be considered a recession, with real GDP declining by 0.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2013 and the unemployment rate rising to about 9 percent in the second half of calendar year 2013. This month, OMB is required to report on how the required spending cuts will be accomplished (Sequestration Transparency Act of 2012, PL 112-155; 8/7/12).

So, what do you think will happen?  Will any of these 100+ expired or expiring provisions be extended before the November 6 election? will it happen in the lame-duck session?  will it wait until the 113th Congress?